Euro area annual inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Among the main components driving the September reading, energy recorded the steepest annual rate at 18.8%, up from 14.3% in August. Services inflation edged up to 3.2% from 3.0%, while food, alcohol and tobacco rose to 1.4% from 1.1%. Non-energy industrial goods were the only component to ease slightly, slipping to 1.1% from 1.2% in August.

The flash estimate is issued at the end of each reference month. The complete set of harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) for the euro area, the EU, and individual member states is due for release around the middle of the following month. Eurostat has scheduled the full September 2026 data for 16 October 2026.

The aggregate figures reflect a change in the euro area's composition. Up to 31 December 2025, the euro area comprised 20 member states: Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Finland. From 1 January 2026, Bulgaria joined the currency union, bringing the total to 21 members. Eurostat notes that data for months up to December 2025 represent the EA20 series, while data from January 2026 onwards represent the EA21 series, with changes in composition incorporated using a chain index formula.

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