The European Union remains on course to meet its 2030 climate targets, but turning planned measures into real-world reductions will require their full and timely implementation, according to the European Environment Agency's (EEA) annual Trends and Projections in Europe 2026 report, published on 9 November 2026. The EEA characterises the situation as "increasingly a question of delivery rather than direction": when additional planned policies and measures are taken into account, the EU is projected to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by a net 54% below 1990 levels by 2030 — bringing it within reach of the legally binding 55% target enshrined in the European Climate Law.
Net greenhouse gas emissions fell by 1.6% in 2025, based on preliminary figures, though the rate of reduction slowed compared to previous years. To reach the target, emissions reductions in Effort Sharing Regulation sectors over the next five years will need to match those achieved over the previous two decades combined.
As of 2025, net EU greenhouse gas emissions under the scope of the European Climate Law stood at 39% below 1990 levels. The EEA notes this progress occurred alongside a 74% increase in gross domestic product and an 8% rise in population over the same period. The net carbon sink under the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) framework increased by an equivalent of 25 MtCO₂e compared to the previous year, while the industrial sector recorded emission reductions of -15 MtCO₂e relative to 2024.
The picture is markedly less positive in transport and buildings. Year-on-year greenhouse gas emissions rose in domestic transport by 0.3% and in buildings by 0.8%. Renewable energy sources account for just 12% of gross final energy consumption in transport and 27% in buildings, compared with 50% in the power sector. The EEA highlights that progress in Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) sectors — which include transport, buildings, and agriculture — has consistently lagged behind the power sector.
Carbon pricing has played a measurable role in driving overall progress: since 2005, the annual rate of total EU greenhouse gas emission reductions more than doubled, a development the EEA links to stronger climate policy and the growing impact of the EU Emissions Trading System. Emissions from ETS-regulated sectors have fallen substantially faster than those governed primarily through national measures under the Effort Sharing Regulation framework.
The European Climate Law, adopted in 2021 and amended in 2026, sets legally binding targets of at least 55% net emissions reduction by 2030, 90% by 2040, and full climate neutrality by 2050.
This article is based on a primary source and has undergone editorial review prior to publication.
